The growing global demand for energy will cause a supply crisis in 2015, prohibiting curb climate change, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). As consequences of this crisis, the IEA says the rising price of oil, which in 2030 could reach the amount of $ 159 per barrel, and the growth of emissions of greenhouse gas, leading to a rise in global temperature the planet of five to six degrees. The model identifies key economic and productive well-being with this expansion and an increased demand for energy. But the new global consumer trends, led by emerging powers like China and India, threaten energy security and accelerate the destruction of the environment. The development of these countries is transforming the global energy system as a result of that is gaining increasing importance in international markets. Developing countries in 2015 represent 47% of the market global energy and over 50% in 2030. Today is 41%.
In 2007, China aims to become the largest emitter of global energy and, in 2010, the biggest consumer. The Asian country has also become the main source of carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, surpassing the U.S.. India will become the third largest emitter of CO2 in 2015. China and India account for 45% of the increase in global energy demand. The IEA estimates that demand will rise to 55% in 2030, more than half of that increase will be in both countries. That year China is expected to import more than 116 million barrels of oil a day.
Countries around the world must invest $ 22 billion in infrastructure to cope with the pace of demand. Nevertheless, there are no guarantees that such investments are realized and the ability and willingness of major oil and gas producers to carry them out are uncertain. If predictions are true, emissions of greenhouse gases can grow by 57%, which shall, by 75% in developing countries. Even if the various governments choose environmental policies, the IEA estimated that these gases in the atmosphere to increase by 25%. The increase in global energy demand will take place despite the high prices of oil and gas, a fact that directly affects the health of the global economy. The coal will become an important resource in its stead. However, given the prices of fossil fuels, concerns about supply security and environmental considerations, improved expectations regarding nuclear power, it could achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions cost-effectively. Current trends in energy consumption are unsustainable and raise the need for new policies to improve energy efficiency and curb runaway demand and the growth of greenhouse gas emissions in the short term. Promote alternative energy and make more efficient use fuel are some of the measures proposed to the IEA, but the realization of policies to adopt is difficult due to the urgency required, the magnitude of the problems to resolve and need to get international support. Energy is part of sustainable development and new policies must seek a balance between the three dimensions of this development: energy security, economic development and environmental protection.